Leaders' Importance to Economic Improvement

Clearly, many people have major concerns about the economy. We're sure it isn't just the Michiganders who evaluate their leaders critically. The Brogan Survey and various media outlets have allowed interesting conversations and thoughts to surface about issues crucial to everyday life.

As we said in earlier blogs, Michiganders graded their leaders below average. We found in the crosstabs that race played a factor in who people thought were the biggest obstacles to the economy.

What we'd now like to examine is how people responded to the question, "And of these five groups, which ONE group is the most important in helping to turn Michigan’s economy around?" Most Michiganders, 46% of them, thought elected officials are most important in improving the economy. 24.2% thought it was up to the business leaders. The pie chart shows the distribution of responses to this question.

Who do you think is most important in turning the economy around? How do you feel the economy is where you live? Who is to blame/praise for that? Who would you like to see contributing more to an improvement?

Racial Divide: Which Leaders are Biggest Obstacles to the Economy?

The Brogan Survey revealed that Michiganders grade most of their leaders at or below average. Of particular interest is that Caucasians and African Americans feel differently about which leaders pose the biggest obstacle to economic improvement.

Over twice as many African Americans as Caucasians felt that educational leaders have been the biggest obstacle in helping to turn Michigan's economy around. In fact, 20.2% of African American respondents said educational leaders are the largest impediment, while only 9.3% of Caucasians did.

The majority of people in both racial groups felt elected officials are the biggest obstacle to the economy's turn-around, with 58% of Caucasians answering in this way and 51.7% of African Americans doing the same.

Caucasians were slightly more likely to say business and union leaders were the biggest obstacles.

Do these responses warrant a red flag? What do you think these results mean?

Michigan Leadership Survey Has Lots of Data

While Daniel Howes of the Detroit News correctly excerpted parts of the recent Brogan Survey questions on Michigan leadership in today's Crisis of Confidence story, there was much more in that line of questioning.

To read our press release on the subject, click here.

The report card part of the findings were interesting. The 600-person telephone poll asked adults statewide to grade groups of leaders based on how well they are "currently serving the State of Michigan." The choices were aligned like a report card: A, B, C, D or F. The report card results are:

• Civic group leaders B-
• Business leaders C
• Education leaders C
• Union leaders C-
• Elected leaders D+

Note that we intentionally did not focus on any one person, any one organization or any one political party. We were more trying to get at the mood of people in the state to serve as context in advance of the Mackinac event than trying to do a typical political poll.

What do you think? Read all the data from these questions here, completely unfiltered, including cross tabs by region, ethnicity, gender and age. Once you do, leave a comment telling us what you think of all this.

Gas Prices Still Soaring

Gas prices in North Carolina averaged a little over $2.83 one month ago, just before respondents completed the Brogan Survey. Based on that price, 59% of respondents told us they had been forced to postpone other purchases. Fast forward to today and the average cost of regular unleaded gas in North Carolina is nearly $3.15, according to AAA's Media Site for retail gasoline prices. That is a $0.32 increase in just four weeks! What does this mean for North Carolinians? Our guess is that the 26.8% who said they didn't intend to change how much they drive this summer will be reconsidering.

Different parts of the state are being affected pretty evenly, with Charlotte, the Triangle and Fayetteville all seeing an increase of $0.31 in the last month. The national average of regular unleaded gas was up to $3.22 as of Monday, coming up $0.12 in the past week.

With no sign of a slowdown in price increase, what will people do? It'll be interesting to see how Memorial Day Weekend turns out; catching up on LOST episodes instead of driving to the beach anyone?

Income Optimism Varies

When we asked North Carolinians: "Thinking about six months from now, do you think your income will be higher or lower than it is today? Or do you think your income will be about the same as today?", we got a wide variety of opinions.

Most people in North Carolina thought there incomes would stay the same. However, some interesting breakdowns in the cross tabs. African Americans were more likely than Caucasians to say they expected their income to rise, but they were also much more likely to say they expected it to fall.

Young people were the most optimistic, as might be expected, with a steady consistent leveling off with age. Males were also more optimistic and more pessimistic than females, suggesting a bit more volatility there.

The 600-person telephone survey was conducted May 3-7, 2007 for Brogan & Partners by the Glengariff Group of Chicago. The questions were not commissioned by any candidate, company or organization. You can read press releases that came from the larger survey here.

Piedmont Pessimists

When asked whether they thought the North Carolina economy was stronger, weaker or about the same as the national economy, there was a real variance in opinion by region of the state.

The Piedmont was by far the most pessimistic. In that region, on 8.0% said the N.C. economy was stronger. Contrast that with the Southern region, where 27.8% felt that economy was stronger. The Charlotte region, the Western counties and the Triangle were all 18 or 19%.

Why the Piedmont pessimism? We don't know. Maybe you do. Leave your best guess as a comment.

Gas Prices Hit Pocketbooks, Consumers Pessimistic

The Brogan survey goes live today! Read the full press release here. This first release focuses on gas prices and people's perception of North Carolina's economy.

We were personally surprised that nearly 7 our of 10 (69.0%) people said they are going to drive less over the summer because of gas prices. That suggests this has moved from "annoyance" to a meaningful hit on people's pocketbooks. That is further shown by the 59% of people who say they are postponing other purchases because of high gas prices. That suggests this could trickle down and impact all of us.

The other part that surprised us was the right track/wrong track questions. We speculated that rural areas (where job growth is typically a struggle) would be pessimistic and the Triangle and Charlotte would be optimistic, but it didn't turn out that way. First off, the state is evenly divided on right track/wrong track. We thought the right track number would've been higher.

More surprising: While the Triangle is the most optimistic, the Charlotte area was the least optimistic about the state's overall direction. 57.8% of Triangle residents said the state was on the right track, while only 34.4% of Charlotte area residents agreed. (55.8% in Charlotte said the state was on the wrong track.) We're not sure what's going on in Charlotte to reflect that.

Finally, people are cautious to pessimistic about future job, income and savings, but they are generally optimistic about their personal prospects.

Read the actual questions asked here.
See which counties are included in which regions here.
Read the full press release here.

Tell us what you think:

• Are gas prices impacting your budget?
• Do you think the state's on the right track or wrong track?
• What's the mood in Charlotte?

Gas Prices and Economy Questions, NC

Gas Prices

1. In the past six months, have higher gas prices caused you to drive less, drive more, or have gas prices caused no change in your driving habits?
A. Drive More 0.5%
B. Drive Less 67.3%
C. No Change in Driving 30.2%
D. Don't Know/ Refused...DO NOT OFFER 2.0%

2. Thinking ahead, given current gas prices, will you be driving more this summer than in past summers, will you be driving less this summer than in past summers, or will you be driving the same amount as in past summers?
A. Drive More 2.0%
B. Drive Less 69.0%
C. No Change in Driving 26.8%
D. Don't Know/ Refused....DO NOT OFFER 2.2%

3. Have rising gas prices forced you to postpone spending money on any other purchases you wanted to make?
A. Yes 59.0%
B. No 39.0%
C. Don't Know....DO NOT OFFER 1.4%
D. Refused...DO NOT OFFER 0.7%

Economy Questions

1. Generally speaking, do you think things in North Carolina are moving in the right direction? Or do you think things in North Carolina are moving in the wrong direction?
A. Right Track 44.7%
B. Wrong Track 43.2%
C. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 11.7%
D. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.3%

2. Do you think North Carolina’s economy is stronger, weaker, or about the same as the nation’s economy?
A. Stronger than nation 16.8%
B. Weaker than nation 34.1%
C. About the same as nation 44.6%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 4.6%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.0%

3. Thinking about six months from now, do you think it will be easier or harder for someone like you to find a job in North Carolina? Or do you think it will be the same as today?
A. Easier to find a job 12.7%
B. Harder to find a job 45.1%
C. About the same 37.5%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 3.7%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.0%

4. Thinking about six months from now, do you think your income will be higher or lower than it is today? Or do you think your income will be about the same as today?
A. Higher income 25.9%
B. Lower income 12.0%
C. About the same income 61.4%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 0.5%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.2%

5. In six months do you think you will have more money saved than you do today, less money saved than you do today, or will you have about the same amount of money saved as you do today?
A. More saved 32.0%
B. Less saved 25.3%
C. About the same saved 40.3%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 2.4%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.0%