Citizens View on NC Leaders Slightly Different than MI

In recent surveys conducted both in North Carolina and Michigan by Brogan & Partners, it was found that southerners and mid-westerners seem to think alike when it comes to their state’s leaders. When asked to rank how well civic group leaders, business leaders, education leaders, and elected leaders are serving their states, the North Carolina public gave out mediocre but passing grades, while Michigan citizens were slightly less satisfied. Despite the difference among the individual grades, however, these states both agree that civic group leaders are doing the best while they are least pleased with elected officials.

To read the North Carolina press release on this issue, visit Brogan's website.

Although there is a direct correlation between the level of grades given in both North Carolina and Michigan, respondents gave differing opinions when asked which one group they think is the most important in helping their state’s economy grow. In the mid-west, the public found elected officials to be the most important, while North Carolinians chose education leaders.

As Jim Tobin said in the press release, “[The overall survey numbers] suggest that most people aren’t wildly unhappy with elected leaders, but they seem to be asking for more from them.”

When considering this, it makes sense that Michigan citizens believe them to be the most important in helping their economy grow. However, when examining North Carolina’s results, it seems a bit odd that their respondents graded elected officials the lowest, yet found business leaders the most creative and education leaders the most important.

So, what exactly does North Carolina want from their elected officials? They believe they are serving the state poorly, but they do not find them to be all that creative or important in helping their economy grow.

What do you think? How can these results be explained?

Michigan Residents Split on Chrysler Sale

New data from the Brogan Survey shows that Michigan residents are decidedly split on what the sale of the company from Daimler to Cerberus Capital will mean.

• The highest number (39.5%) felt it would make no difference
• Second place, at 33.3%, were those who thought it would help the company perform better
• 17.8% said it would make the company perform worse

So, you could say that most (57.3%) feel that it won't make it any better. Or you could say that most 72.8% feel that it won't make it any worse. Or you could say that optimists outweigh pessimists by 2:1, as we chose to in our press release.

As you can see, it's relatively easy to spin these things. We're working hard to not spin this data, but to provide it as clearly as we can, showing what we find interesting about it and then sharing the details so you can decide for yourself.

What do you think? Is the Chrysler sale good or bad for Michigan?

Our Michigan Launch is a Page 1-A Story

The Detroit News certainly found our first Michigan Brogan Survey findings to be of interest. Check out this front page headline, "Crisis of Confidence".
In the story, columnist Daniel Howes notes some of the findings of "Brogan's report-card style survey." We're pleased with the coverage, to be sure, and hope the findings help frame a constructive, productive discussion during the Mackinac Conference.

TV Show Cancellation Wishes Vary by NC Region

In yesterday's post, we shared the data on which popular TV shows North Carolina residents surveyed would cancel first. Today, we look at that data by region of the state, and there are significant differences.

• American Idol has a lot of haters in the Southern region, where 19.4% of respondents would tube that show. That's a sharp contrast to their neighbors to the north, where only 1.8% of Coastal residents would get rid of the show.
• The Coastal folks don't like 24 much. They were the most likely region to pick that show to cancel, at 8.8%. The Southern region disagrees again, where only 2.8% would cancel 24.
• The Charlotte region wants to vote Survivor off the island. 24.7% are done with that show. Only 8.3% in the Southern region feel the same...most of them continue to give the show the immunity necklace.
• Speaking of islands, the Southern region also had 19.4% of folks wanting to get rid of Lost, putting it in a tie in that region with Idol. Charlotte has the most Lost fans, with only 6.5% choosing to cancel Locke, Kate, Jack and Sawyer.
• Nobody got too worked up about canceling E.R. (Now it could be because most people thought it was canceled years ago, but that's just us talking here...). The North Central region had 7.1% in favor of taking the show off life support. In contrast, the Western region had nobody (0.0%) give their votes to snuffing out E.R.
• CSI didn't have many people eager to investigate it, either. The Charlotte region at 3.9% slightly edged out the Triangle (3.7%) and the the Coastal (3.5%) region. The North Central folks came in lowest, at 0.9%.
• Everyone saved their animosity for Desperate Housewives, which might just prove that the brightest stars also flame out most brilliantly. The Coastal region kept their powder dry from other shows and used it here, with 40.4% saying they are tired of Wisteria Lane. The Southern region of the state was kindest, coming in at 25.0% who were no longer mourning the passing of Mary Alice.

With the American Idol finale going tonight, we may head to the Southern region, where we're confident it won't be showing... But hey, that's just us...

NC Says: Please cancel "Desperate Housewives"!

At the Brogan Survey we like to ask the occasional fun question as well as the serious ones, just to mix it up a bit.

This North Carolina survey asked 600-people: "If you were a network television executive and you had to cancel one show, which of the following shows would you cancel first?" We rotated the orders of choices so as not to have any bias in the order they were read.

Desperate Housewives "won" in a landslide, meaning people in North Carolina are really ready for that show to go... American Idol came in a surprisingly strong third. (Angry Sanjaya fans maybe??)

Here are the results, the most often canceled first:

• Desperate Housewives: 31.5%
• Survivor: 20.2%
• American Idol: 14.2%
• Lost: 11.9%
• Twenty Four (24): 5.6%
• E. R.: 4.1%
• CSI: 3.1%
• Don't know/refused: 9.5%

We think the picture above shows the Housewives mourning their dwindling fame...

The 600-person telephone survey was conducted May 3-7, 2007 for Brogan & Partners by the Glengariff Group of Chicago. The questions were not commissioned by any candidate, company or organization. You can read press releases that came from the larger survey here.

What do you think? Which show would you cancel first? We thought maybe 24 was the most tired show, but the anti "Housewives" crowd came on strong... Do you agree?

Income Optimism Varies

When we asked North Carolinians: "Thinking about six months from now, do you think your income will be higher or lower than it is today? Or do you think your income will be about the same as today?", we got a wide variety of opinions.

Most people in North Carolina thought there incomes would stay the same. However, some interesting breakdowns in the cross tabs. African Americans were more likely than Caucasians to say they expected their income to rise, but they were also much more likely to say they expected it to fall.

Young people were the most optimistic, as might be expected, with a steady consistent leveling off with age. Males were also more optimistic and more pessimistic than females, suggesting a bit more volatility there.

The 600-person telephone survey was conducted May 3-7, 2007 for Brogan & Partners by the Glengariff Group of Chicago. The questions were not commissioned by any candidate, company or organization. You can read press releases that came from the larger survey here.

NC: African Americans Much More Likely to Support Ban on Tobacco

One interesting piece of data from the question about banning smoking in North Carolina entirely, is that African Americans were significantly more likely to support such a ban.

To be specific, the exact question asked was: "Would you support or oppose a North Carolina law that would ban tobacco use entirely?" And then we asked, "And would that be strongly support/oppose, or somewhat support/oppose."

Here's how the answers differed by race:

Caucasian:

• Strongly support 17.9%
• Somewhat support 8.4%
• Somewhat oppose 15.8%
• Strongly oppose 54.9%

African American:

• Strongly support 28.9%
• Somewhat support 6.6%
• Somewhat oppose 19.7%
• Strongly oppose 42.8%

So 35.5% of North Carolina African-Americans would support a complete ban on tobacco in the state, versus 26.3% of Caucasians. And the opposition is softer among African-Americans as well.

There's a lot of interesting data in this survey. Watch the blog for more data, or better yet, use the tool to the right to subscribe so you can see the latest at a glance...

Most importantly, share your comments... No log-in required. They can be anonymous...

Ban Smoking? In North Carolina??

That's the surprising finding from our latest survey data released today. Turns out that 28.3% of North Carolinians would support "a North Carolina law that would ban tobacco use entirely". 21% strongly support it, another 7.3% somewhat support it.

On the flip side, 69.1% would oppose such a law, 52.2% strongly, 16.9% somewhat. (2.5% don't know). But to see more than a quarter of people in the heart of the tobacco belt suggesting they'd be ok with making tobacco use illegal was surpising. Our personal guess before the survey (and again, it was just a wild guess) was about 12% would support a ban. But with all the legislation coming down on tobacco use, we'd not seen anyone who'd asked the question of who would ban it. So we asked.

The majority of people in the state did support a ban on smoking at bars and restaurants (61%) and a ban on smoking in all indoor public places (64%).

But before we say the survey shows strong sentiment for action on tobacco, other questions suggest people don't think smoking is our greatest concern. In fact, when asked to pick the greatest public health threat in the state from four choices (obesity, smoking, alcohol abuse or drug abuse--and yes, the order they were asked in rotated...), the largest percentage chose drug abuse as you can see in the press release.

That suggests to us that second hand smoke may still be seen as more of an annoyance than a significant health threat. There is increasing evidence that second hand smoke can be a health problem, but that message doesn't seem to have permeated quite yet. In fact, we did a campaign about that (you can read more about the research on it here).

And, full disclosure, we did a campaign for the state of NC trying to educate people about the dangers of short term exposure to second hand smoke. You can watch the TV spot from that campaign below, if you're interested.



What do you think:

• Great idea to outlaw tobacco because of the health risk?
• Or would that be government intrusion into private affairs?
• Is it an idea that will happen in North Carolina someday, or will it never happen

Thoughts? Leave your comment below.

Right track/wrong track opinions vary widely

We mentioned yesterday that the Charlotte area was the most pessimistic in the state (with right track/wrong track at 34.4%/55.8%), and the Triangle was the most optimistic (57.8%/29.9%). In fact, the Triangle was the only region in North Carolina that has more than 50% of people choosing right track. Why this is, we're not entirely sure.

Other details in the survey reveal that African Americans and Caucasians are fairly consistent, with 42.8% of African-Americans and 45.4% of Caucasians picking right track.

Women, however, are significantly more optimistic than men, with 48.8% choosing right track, versus 40.9% of men.

Optimism on this question declined with age. 18-24 year olds are not the cynics they are sometimes made out to be (at least on this survey)... 61.7% chose right track. 50% of 25-34 year old also chose right track. All other age groups were in the 40 percent areas.

Gas Prices Hit Pocketbooks, Consumers Pessimistic

The Brogan survey goes live today! Read the full press release here. This first release focuses on gas prices and people's perception of North Carolina's economy.

We were personally surprised that nearly 7 our of 10 (69.0%) people said they are going to drive less over the summer because of gas prices. That suggests this has moved from "annoyance" to a meaningful hit on people's pocketbooks. That is further shown by the 59% of people who say they are postponing other purchases because of high gas prices. That suggests this could trickle down and impact all of us.

The other part that surprised us was the right track/wrong track questions. We speculated that rural areas (where job growth is typically a struggle) would be pessimistic and the Triangle and Charlotte would be optimistic, but it didn't turn out that way. First off, the state is evenly divided on right track/wrong track. We thought the right track number would've been higher.

More surprising: While the Triangle is the most optimistic, the Charlotte area was the least optimistic about the state's overall direction. 57.8% of Triangle residents said the state was on the right track, while only 34.4% of Charlotte area residents agreed. (55.8% in Charlotte said the state was on the wrong track.) We're not sure what's going on in Charlotte to reflect that.

Finally, people are cautious to pessimistic about future job, income and savings, but they are generally optimistic about their personal prospects.

Read the actual questions asked here.
See which counties are included in which regions here.
Read the full press release here.

Tell us what you think:

• Are gas prices impacting your budget?
• Do you think the state's on the right track or wrong track?
• What's the mood in Charlotte?

Gas Prices and Economy Questions, NC

Gas Prices

1. In the past six months, have higher gas prices caused you to drive less, drive more, or have gas prices caused no change in your driving habits?
A. Drive More 0.5%
B. Drive Less 67.3%
C. No Change in Driving 30.2%
D. Don't Know/ Refused...DO NOT OFFER 2.0%

2. Thinking ahead, given current gas prices, will you be driving more this summer than in past summers, will you be driving less this summer than in past summers, or will you be driving the same amount as in past summers?
A. Drive More 2.0%
B. Drive Less 69.0%
C. No Change in Driving 26.8%
D. Don't Know/ Refused....DO NOT OFFER 2.2%

3. Have rising gas prices forced you to postpone spending money on any other purchases you wanted to make?
A. Yes 59.0%
B. No 39.0%
C. Don't Know....DO NOT OFFER 1.4%
D. Refused...DO NOT OFFER 0.7%

Economy Questions

1. Generally speaking, do you think things in North Carolina are moving in the right direction? Or do you think things in North Carolina are moving in the wrong direction?
A. Right Track 44.7%
B. Wrong Track 43.2%
C. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 11.7%
D. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.3%

2. Do you think North Carolina’s economy is stronger, weaker, or about the same as the nation’s economy?
A. Stronger than nation 16.8%
B. Weaker than nation 34.1%
C. About the same as nation 44.6%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 4.6%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.0%

3. Thinking about six months from now, do you think it will be easier or harder for someone like you to find a job in North Carolina? Or do you think it will be the same as today?
A. Easier to find a job 12.7%
B. Harder to find a job 45.1%
C. About the same 37.5%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 3.7%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.0%

4. Thinking about six months from now, do you think your income will be higher or lower than it is today? Or do you think your income will be about the same as today?
A. Higher income 25.9%
B. Lower income 12.0%
C. About the same income 61.4%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 0.5%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.2%

5. In six months do you think you will have more money saved than you do today, less money saved than you do today, or will you have about the same amount of money saved as you do today?
A. More saved 32.0%
B. Less saved 25.3%
C. About the same saved 40.3%
D. Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 2.4%
E. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.0%

Which Counties Are in Which Regions?

You'll see in the Brogan Survey that we've divided responses into regions so we can look at geographic differences in how people respond. (Our divisions largely mirror the national DMAs, or Designated Market Areas, assigned by Nielsen as television markets. That's why the "Charlotte" region goes all the way up to the Virginia border, for example--because the Charlotte TV market does.)

Here is the list (NC first, MI second) of which counties are in which regions (the number after the region name is how many of the 600 survey respondents come from that region, and that's proportional to the population):

NORTH CAROLINA
REGION ONE/ WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (50): Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey

REGION TWO/ CHARLOTTE: Alexander, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Richmond, Rowan, Stanly, Union, Watauga

REGION THREE/ PIEDMONT-TRIAD NORTH CAROLINA: Alamance, Alleghany, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Wilkes, Yadkin

REGION FOUR/ SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA (39): Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson, Scotland

REGION FIVE/ TRIANGLE REGION (176): Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Moore, Nash, Northampton, Orange, Person, Sampson, Vance, Wake, Warren, Wayne, Wilson

REGION SIX/ COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA: Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Duplin, Gates, Greene, Hertford, Hyde, Jones, Lenoir, Martin, Onslow, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell, Washington

MICHIGANNORTHERN MICHIGAN: Alcona, Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Baraga, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Clare, Crawford, Delta, Dickinson, Emmet, Gogebic, Grand Traverse, Houghton, Iosco, Iron, Kalkaska, Keweenaw, Lake, Leelenau, Luce, Mackinac, Manistee, Marquette, Mason, Mecosta, Menominee, Missaukee, Montmorency, Newaygo, Oceana, Ogemaw, Ontonagon, Osceola, Oscoda, Otsego, Presque Isle, Roscommon, Schoolcraft, Wexford

WEST/SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN: Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, St Joseph, Van Buren

CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Clinton, Eaton, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Ionia, Isabella, Jackson, Lenawee, Montcalm

EAST CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Arenac, Bay, Genesee, Gladwin, Huron, Lapeer, Midland, Saginaw, Sanilac, Shiawassee, Tuscola

OAKLAND COUNTY: Just Oakland County

MACOMB COUNTY: Just Macomb County

WAYNE COUNTY: People who live in Wayne County, but not in the City of Detroit

CITY OF DETROIT: People who live in the City of Detroit

REMAINDER OF DETROIT MSA: Livingston, Monroe, St Clair, Washtenaw

Margin of Error of the Brogan Survey

The Brogan Survey is a 600-person telephone survey. As a result, the simple answer to the margin of error question is +/-4% at a 95% confidence level. If that's the answer you need, then you're all set.

Many people don't really understand margin of error, which is surprising, since Statistics classes where just ooohhhh so fascinating. The +/-4% that you see in the paper all the time is the worst case scenario for the margin of error. That's the margin when 50% of people answer a question yes and 50% answer no. So the actual split is somewhere between 50/50 and 46/54 either way.

As the population gets more united in any answer (for or against something), the margin of error decreases!

• So if 60% agree in a Brogan survey question, the margin is 3.92%
• If 70% agree, the margin of error is 3.67%
• If 80% agree, the margin of error is 3.2%
• If 90% agree, the margin of error is 2.4%
• If 99% agree, the margin of error is 0.8%

Bored yet? No? Ok, glutton, here comes your punishment...

Some people ask how 600 people can accurately represent the 8 million or so people in each state we survey in... Well, they can't entirely accurately, which is why you have margin of error in a survey. But if you jumped up to interviewing 1,100 people, the margin of error would only reduce to 3%--and the survey costs way more to conduct. And that's, well, bad, mostly for us...

But the fact is that even if you interviewed 1 million people, the numbers won't change too much either way. That is, unless you did a survey that was really poorly designed, so that all callers were very much alike. But if you do a true, random-digit dial phone survey, where all areas of the state are equally represented, and ethnic breakdown matches the state, and income breakdowns are accurate (like we do), you get a pretty good idea of what the entire state is thinking.

If you're not bored yet, you're a stronger person than I am...

Why Does Brogan Conduct the Brogan Survey?

Our philosophy as an agency can be summed up by a quote from Professor Robert Lauterborn, the chair of the advertising department at UNC-Chapel Hill, and the author of Integrated Marketing Communications, who said:

"The only sustainable source of competitive advantage is superior knowledge of the customer."

So, for our clients to win, we have to be better at understanding their customers than anyone else. That's why we invest so heavily in secondary research tools. To supplement that, we decided to conduct our own original research in our primary business markets: Michigan and North Carolina. The Brogan Survey was born out of that idea.

We have no vested interest in the answers to these questions. We're not advocating for a particular position, product or candidate. We're simply working to understand the mood of the consumer in markets that are key to us and to many of our clients.

Please let us know what you think of the survey using the comments field.

Introducing the Brogan Survey

Coming mid-May 2007, the Brogan Survey will ask consumers in North Carolina and consumers in Michigan a series of questions to gauge their attitudes on the economy, health care, business and marketing issues and current events.

The Brogan Survey is a statewide, 600-person, random digit dial telephone survey conducted by human interviewers, not robo-calls. The survey is statistically valid, with the sample stratified to ensure a representative sample of all areas of the state proportional with actual population distribution.

The Brogan Survey debuts in May of 2007 with the first North Carolina poll. The first Michigan poll will take place in June of 2007. The Brogan Survey will be conducted six times a year (three in Michigan, three in North Carolina).

We'll use this blog to share the results with the blogosphere. We hope you enjoy. Please leave a comment to let us know your thoughts.